Population and Survey Analysts (PASA) was hired by NBISD to provide updated demographic information that will help the district plan for the future. PASA uses many types of data—such as student enrollment, home construction, birth rates, student mobility, transfer trends, and job growth—to understand how the community is changing.

During a Board of Trustees meeting on December 8th, PASA shared the trends they found. This information will help guide NBISD as leaders plan for future facilities, staffing needs, and budgeting. NBISD will continue working with PASA this spring and summer to create a long-range facilities plan and determine needs for a possible future bond program.

PASA’s study includes several steps. They collect background data, map where students live, study how many students live in each home, analyze private, charter, and alternate education options in the area, review housing and economic trends, and create enrollment projections for the entire district. They also study long-term planning needs to help the district prepare for the next decade.

Although NBISD is located in a high-growth area, PASA noted growth in the community does not always translate to growth in school enrollment.

NBISD currently ranks seventh among nearby districts for enrollment growth. Over the past 10 years, NBISD added 1,297 students, with steady growth before COVID-19, a drop during the pandemic, and a recovery afterward. This school year, however, enrollment declined by about 137 students.

The population of New Braunfels continues to rise, but the median age of residents has stayed around 35 for the past five years. Even with population growth, the number of school-aged children has declined. This means that while the community is expanding, the portion of families with school-aged children who will attend NBISD is slightly declining.

By mapping student addresses, PASA found most new students moving into NBISD live in the Veramendi neighborhood and the area near Long Creek High School on Zipp Road.

Enrollment patterns have shifted since the pandemic. Smaller kindergarten classes are replacing larger outgoing groups of older students, causing uneven enrollment numbers across grade levels.

On average, NBISD has 0.35 students per single-family home and 0.19 students per multi-family home. This is lower than the typical 0.5 to 0.7 range found in similar school districts. Much of this difference is due to New Braunfels’ aging population and higher number of homes without school-aged children. The east side of the district has more student-dense housing—about 0.5 students per home—compared to about 0.3 students per home on the west side.

Post-COVID mortgage rate increases have slowed the housing market in the area. New Braunfels’ median home price is $334,995, and home sales dropped by 23.3% this August. For the first time since COVID, the housing inventory has reached a six-month supply, indicating a slowing market.

About 75.5% of all new housing in NBISD over the next 10 years will be single-family homes. Most growth is expected west of Loop 337 in Veramendi and east of County Line Road in several smaller neighborhoods. Established areas in the center of the district are seeing little new housing development. The neighborhoods with the most projected growth are Veramendi, Purlsong, Park Place, Voss Farms, and Guadalupe Ridge.

Multifamily housing will play a smaller role in future growth. Several new apartment complexes are opening, but many are high-end properties attracting fewer families. Apple Seeds Apartments, which serves lower-income families, is more likely to bring in students. Older apartment complexes often attract more families over time as they age.

PASA projects 17,330 new housing units in NBISD over the next decade. About 75% will be single-family homes, 15% multifamily, 3% build-to-rent homes, 0.3% manufactured homes, and 5.2% age-restricted homes. Overall, New Braunfels is expected to experience steady growth, with Veramendi remaining a major point of interest for developers.

PASA reports that NBISD has plenty of available space across campuses.

No elementary schools are expected to exceed capacity in the next 10 years. However, PASA noted that NBISD has many small campuses, which can be expensive to operate, especially as school funding challenges increase statewide.

At the middle school level, NBMS will see early growth, while both NBMS and ORMS are expected to decline after the current large 4th–7th grade group moves through. Middle school utilization is expected to reach 80–85% in five years and around 90% in ten years.

High school enrollment is expected to remain steady, with the greatest growth occurring at Long Creek High School. Both NBHS and LCHS will remain at about 70% capacity over the next decade.

Although new housing is on the rise, PASA reminds the community that more homes do not always equal more students. Many factors including housing costs, family choices, and economic shifts affect enrollment. NBISD will continue long-range planning this spring to prepare for the future needs of students, staff, and the entire community.

The full presentation of the report can be found here.